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Daily Report : TradingEdge Weekly for May 16 - Calm conditions, monthly highs, sell in May

Jason Goepfert
2025-05-16
This week, we saw that calm conditions returned, with the VIX falling below 20. That was helped by a surge in new monthly highs among stocks, and improving trends on the Nasdaq. More indicators are suggesting favorable conditions, even as "sell in May" takes hold. Many foreign markets have outperformed the USA in the past 6 months.
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TradingEdge Weekly for May 16 - Calm conditions, monthly highs, sell in May: This week, we saw that calm conditions returned, with the VIX falling below 20. That was helped by a surge in new monthly highs among stocks, and improving trends on the Nasdaq. More indicators are suggesting favorable conditions, even as "sell in May" takes hold. Many foreign markets have outperformed the USA in the past 6 months.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 48% Dumb Money Confidence: 75%

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Research

TradingEdge Weekly for May 16 - Calm conditions, monthly highs, sell in May

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
This week, we saw that calm conditions returned, with the VIX falling below 20. That was helped by a surge in new monthly highs among stocks, and improving trends on the Nasdaq. More indicators are suggesting favorable conditions, even as "sell in May" takes hold. Many foreign markets have outperformed the USA in the past 6 months.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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% Showing Pessimism: 12%
Bullish for Stocks
S&P 500 Down Pressure
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Major Index Combo
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 33%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
ISE Call/Put Ratio
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Dumb Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Optimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
OEX Open Interest Ratio
Options Speculation Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

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Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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