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Daily Report : Calm conditions make a comeback

Jason Goepfert
2025-05-14
For the first time in 30 days, the VIX closed below 20. This has had significant repercussions on forward returns in the S&P 500, with much better returns and lower risk than when the VIX is above 20. The ends of long streaks above 20 have tended to precede further gains for the S&P, especially when it was trading above its 200-day average.
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Headlines

Calm conditions make a comeback: For the first time in 30 days, the VIX closed below 20. This has had significant repercussions on forward returns in the S&P 500, with much better returns and lower risk than when the VIX is above 20. The ends of long streaks above 20 have tended to precede further gains for the S&P, especially when it was trading above its 200-day average.

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Research

Calm conditions make a comeback

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
For the first time in 30 days, the VIX closed below 20. This has had significant repercussions on forward returns in the S&P 500, with much better returns and lower risk than when the VIX is above 20. The ends of long streaks above 20 have tended to precede further gains for the S&P, especially when it was trading above its 200-day average.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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