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Daily Report : A worry that isn't really

Jason Goepfert
2025-05-12
There is a theory among technicians that the longer an index holds below its 200-day average, the more likely we're going to crash. The S&P 500 has now held below its average for 30 sessions, the longest in years. However, similar cycles following a new high were benign, with limited downside in the months ahead.
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Headlines

A worry that isn't really: There is a theory among technicians that the longer an index holds below its 200-day average, the more likely we're going to crash. The S&P 500 has now held below its average for 30 sessions, the longest in years. However, similar cycles following a new high were benign, with limited downside in the months ahead.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 59% Dumb Money Confidence: 65%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A worry that isn't really

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
There is a theory among technicians that the longer an index holds below its 200-day average, the more likely we're going to crash. The S&P 500 has now held below its average for 30 sessions, the longest in years. However, similar cycles following a new high were benign, with limited downside in the months ahead.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 18%
Bullish for Stocks
Rydex Bearish Flow
Smart Money Confidence
VIX
Risk Appetite Index
AAII Bull Ratio
Major Index Combo
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 23%
Bearish for Stocks
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Dumb Money Confidence
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Options Speculation Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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