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Daily Report : The rest of 2025 - the bad news

Jason Goepfert
2025-04-24
The first four months of 2025 are poised to close with a loss for the S&P 500 Index. Does this have any implications for the rest of the year? We crunched the numbers and detail the results herein.
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Headlines

The rest of 2025 - the bad news: The first four months of 2025 are poised to close with a loss for the S&P 500 Index. Does this have any implications for the rest of the year? We crunched the numbers and detail the results herein.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 83% Dumb Money Confidence: 46%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

The rest of 2025 - the bad news

By Jay Kaeppel

BOTTOM LINE
The first four months of 2025 are poised to close with a loss for the S&P 500 Index. Does this have any implications for the rest of the year? We crunched the numbers and detail the results herein.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 32%
Bullish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
SPY Liquidity Premium
Risk Appetite Index
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Sector Breadth
Smart Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Pessimism
VIX
VIX Term Structure
OEX Put/Call Ratio
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Equity Hedging Index
AAII Bull Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
Major Index Combo
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 21%
Bearish for Stocks
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
S&P 500 Down Pressure
Retail Money Market Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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