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Daily Report : A top 5 volatility scenario

Jason Goepfert
2025-04-23
Investors have suffered through drastic price swings for weeks, and it is being reflected in a proxy index that apes the VIX "fear gauge." This proxy VIX goes back to 1962, and shows the current spike is now the 4th most extreme since then. When the index gets to an extreme level, it has rarely preceded further losses for stocks.
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Headlines

A top 5 volatility scenario: Investors have suffered through drastic price swings for weeks, and it is being reflected in a proxy index that apes the VIX "fear gauge." This proxy VIX goes back to 1962, and shows the current spike is now the 4th most extreme since then. When the index gets to an extreme level, it has rarely preceded further losses for stocks.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 85% Dumb Money Confidence: 37%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A top 5 volatility scenario

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
Investors have suffered through drastic price swings for weeks, and it is being reflected in a proxy index that apes the VIX "fear gauge." This proxy VIX goes back to 1962, and shows the current spike is now the 4th most extreme since then. When the index gets to an extreme level, it has rarely preceded further losses for stocks.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

Click here to view the Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview on the site.

Indicators at Extremes

Click here to view on the site (% Extremes and "Excess" tabs on the dashboard).
% Showing Pessimism: 37%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
SPY Liquidity Premium
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Sector Breadth
Smart Money Confidence
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
% Showing Excess Pessimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
VIX
VIX Term Structure
Dumb Money Confidence
OEX Put/Call Ratio
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
Risk Appetite Index
Equity Hedging Index
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
AAII Bull Ratio
Major Index Combo
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 25%
Bearish for Stocks
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
S&P 500 Down Pressure
Retail Money Market Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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