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Daily Report : A bullish to bearish trend shift for the S&P 500

Jason Goepfert
2025-04-17
For only the 21st time since 1929, the slope of the 200-day moving average for the S&P 500 shifted from an uptrend to a downtrend. Comparable signals saw the S&P 500 struggle over the subsequent year. Furthermore, 65% of the instances occurred in bear markets.
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Headlines

A bullish to bearish trend shift for the S&P 500: For only the 21st time since 1929, the slope of the 200-day moving average for the S&P 500 shifted from an uptrend to a downtrend. Comparable signals saw the S&P 500 struggle over the subsequent year. Furthermore, 65% of the instances occurred in bear markets.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 85% Dumb Money Confidence: 28%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A bullish to bearish trend shift for the S&P 500

By Dean Christians

BOTTOM LINE
For only the 21st time since 1929, the slope of the 200-day moving average for the S&P 500 shifted from an uptrend to a downtrend. Comparable signals saw the S&P 500 struggle over the subsequent year. Furthermore, 65% of the instances occurred in bear markets.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 42%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
SPY Liquidity Premium
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
Risk Appetite Index
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Sector Breadth
Smart Money Confidence
S&P 500 Down Pressure
% Showing Excess Pessimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
VIX
VIX Term Structure
Dumb Money Confidence
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Equity Put/Call Ratio De-Trended
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Equity Hedging Index
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
AAII Bull Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
Major Index Combo
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 16%
Bearish for Stocks
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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