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Daily Report : Buy the dip is dead

Jason Goepfert
2025-04-16
Through the first few months of this year, investors haven't been willing to buy the dip after big down days. For one of the few times in history, the S&P 500's return the week after a -1% down day was also more than -1%. Similar behavior at this time of year usually resulted in rallies.
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Headlines

Buy the dip is dead: Through the first few months of this year, investors haven't been willing to buy the dip after big down days. For one of the few times in history, the S&P 500's return the week after a -1% down day was also more than -1%. Similar behavior at this time of year usually resulted in rallies.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 86% Dumb Money Confidence: 29%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

Buy the dip is dead

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
Through the first few months of this year, investors haven't been willing to buy the dip after big down days. For one of the few times in history, the S&P 500's return the week after a -1% down day was also more than -1%. Similar behavior at this time of year usually resulted in rallies.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 37%
Bullish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
SPY Liquidity Premium
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Sector Breadth
Smart Money Confidence
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
% Showing Excess Pessimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
VIX
VIX Term Structure
Dumb Money Confidence
Equity Put/Call Ratio De-Trended
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Equity Hedging Index
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Risk Appetite Index
AAII Bull Ratio
Major Index Combo
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 14%
Bearish for Stocks
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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