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Daily Report : An equity earthquake

Jason Goepfert
2025-04-14
Investors have suffered an equity earthquake, with four out of six sessions witnessing a 2.5 standard deviation move in the Dow Industrials. Dating back to 1900, there have been about a dozen similar bouts of extreme daily changes. Short-term returns were volatile and leaned negative, but three to six months later, recovered every time.
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Headlines

An equity earthquake: Investors have suffered an equity earthquake, with four out of six sessions witnessing a 2.5 standard deviation move in the Dow Industrials. Dating back to 1900, there have been about a dozen similar bouts of extreme daily changes. Short-term returns were volatile and leaned negative, but three to six months later, recovered every time.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 87% Dumb Money Confidence: 26%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

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Agriculture

Research

An equity earthquake

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
Investors have suffered an equity earthquake, with four out of six sessions witnessing a 2.5 standard deviation move in the Dow Industrials. Dating back to 1900, there have been about a dozen similar bouts of extreme daily changes. Short-term returns were volatile and leaned negative, but three to six months later, recovered every time.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 37%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
SPY Liquidity Premium
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Equity Hedging Index
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Sector Breadth
Smart Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Pessimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
VIX
VIX Term Structure
Dumb Money Confidence
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
Risk Appetite Index
AAII Bull Ratio
Major Index Combo
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 23%
Bearish for Stocks
NYSE Arms Index
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Equity Put/Call Ratio
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
S&P 500 Down Pressure
Retail Money Market Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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