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Daily Report : TradingEdge Weekly for Apr 11 - Extreme moves, bevy of oversold indicators, safe haven concerns

Jason Goepfert
2025-04-11
This week, we saw that investors endured a historic level of volatility. That triggered a bevy of oversold indicators and potential capitulation. The S&P 500 didn't quite reach a bear market, and its most highly correlated corrections over time typically resolved higher soon. High-beta stocks plunged relative to high-quality. There are reasons to distrust potential safe havens.
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TradingEdge Weekly for Apr 11 - Extreme moves, bevy of oversold indicators, safe haven concerns: This week, we saw that investors endured a historic level of volatility. That triggered a bevy of oversold indicators and potential capitulation. The S&P 500 didn't quite reach a bear market, and its most highly correlated corrections over time typically resolved higher soon. High-beta stocks plunged relative to high-quality. There are reasons to distrust potential safe havens.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 87% Dumb Money Confidence: 24%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

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Agriculture

Research

TradingEdge Weekly for Apr 11 - Extreme moves, bevy of oversold indicators, safe haven concerns

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
This week, we saw that investors endured a historic level of volatility. That triggered a bevy of oversold indicators and potential capitulation. The S&P 500 didn't quite reach a bear market, and its most highly correlated corrections over time typically resolved higher soon. High-beta stocks plunged relative to high-quality. There are reasons to distrust potential safe havens.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 47%
Bullish for Stocks
Smart Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Pessimism
VIX
VIX Term Structure
Inverse ETF Volume
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Sector Breadth
SPY Liquidity Premium
S&P 500 Down Pressure
Equity Put/Call Ratio
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
Equity Put/Call Ratio De-Trended
AAII Bull Ratio
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Risk Appetite Index
Major Index Combo
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Equity Hedging Index
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 14%
Bearish for Stocks
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Retail Money Market Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Mutual Fund Cash Level
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio

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Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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