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Daily Report : A historic rally and market breadth imbalance

Jason Goepfert
2025-04-10
In one of history's most remarkable trading sessions, daily price momentum and market breadth indicators experienced one of their most substantial surges ever. Similar extremes have historically coincided with bear markets, resulting in a consistently negative outlook for the S&P 500 over various time horizons.
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Headlines

A historic rally and market breadth imbalance: In one of history's most remarkable trading sessions, daily price momentum and market breadth indicators experienced one of their most substantial surges ever. Similar extremes have historically coincided with bear markets, resulting in a consistently negative outlook for the S&P 500 over various time horizons.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 88% Dumb Money Confidence: 17%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A historic rally and market breadth imbalance

By Dean Christians

BOTTOM LINE
In one of history's most remarkable trading sessions, daily price momentum and market breadth indicators experienced one of their most substantial surges ever. Similar extremes have historically coincided with bear markets, resulting in a consistently negative outlook for the S&P 500 over various time horizons.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 37%
Bullish for Stocks
Smart Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Pessimism
VIX
VIX Term Structure
Inverse ETF Volume
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Sector Breadth
SPY Liquidity Premium
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
Equity Put/Call Ratio De-Trended
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Risk Appetite Index
Equity Hedging Index
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
AAII Bull Ratio
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 25%
Bearish for Stocks
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
NYSE Arms Index
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
S&P 500 Down Pressure
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Mutual Fund Cash Level
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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