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Daily Report : A generational bout of uncertainty and volatility

Jason Goepfert
2025-04-09
The S&P 500's Average True Range, a measure of volatility, over the past week has been higher than all days since 1962 except the '87 crash, '08 global crisis, and '20 Covid. Even over a longer time frame, the ATR is higher than all but 2% of other days. How investors behave in the next two weeks has been an excellent tell for longer time frames.
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Headlines

A generational bout of uncertainty and volatility: The S&P 500's Average True Range, a measure of volatility, over the past week has been higher than all days since 1962 except the '87 crash, '08 global crisis, and '20 Covid. Even over a longer time frame, the ATR is higher than all but 2% of other days. How investors behave in the next two weeks has been an excellent tell for longer time frames.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 88% Dumb Money Confidence: 15%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A generational bout of uncertainty and volatility

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
The S&P 500's Average True Range, a measure of volatility, over the past week has been higher than all days since 1962 except the '87 crash, '08 global crisis, and '20 Covid. Even over a longer time frame, the ATR is higher than all but 2% of other days. How investors behave in the next two weeks has been an excellent tell for longer time frames.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

Click here to view on the site (% Extremes and "Excess" tabs on the dashboard).
% Showing Pessimism: 53%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
SPY Liquidity Premium
NYSE Arms Index
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Sector Breadth
Smart Money Confidence
Equity Put/Call Ratio
S&P 500 Down Pressure
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
% Showing Excess Pessimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
VIX
Total Put/Call Ratio
VIX Term Structure
Dumb Money Confidence
Stock/Bond Ratio
Equity Put/Call Ratio De-Trended
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Equity Hedging Index
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
Risk Appetite Index
AAII Bull Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 16%
Bearish for Stocks
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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