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Daily Report : A rare capitulation signal

Jason Goepfert
2025-04-08
A capitulation indicator that combines market breadth and price momentum declined to one of the lowest readings since 1929, indicating an extremely oversold condition. Similar precedents saw the S&P 500 rally 92% of the time over the subsequent six months.
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Headlines

A rare capitulation signal: A capitulation indicator that combines market breadth and price momentum declined to one of the lowest readings since 1929, indicating an extremely oversold condition. Similar precedents saw the S&P 500 rally 92% of the time over the subsequent six months.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 91% Dumb Money Confidence: 13%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A rare capitulation signal

By Dean Christians

BOTTOM LINE
A capitulation indicator that combines market breadth and price momentum declined to one of the lowest readings since 1929, indicating an extremely oversold condition. Similar precedents saw the S&P 500 rally 92% of the time over the subsequent six months.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

Click here to view the Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview on the site.

Indicators at Extremes

Click here to view on the site (% Extremes and "Excess" tabs on the dashboard).
% Showing Pessimism: 47%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
SPY Liquidity Premium
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Sector Breadth
Smart Money Confidence
S&P 500 Down Pressure
% Showing Excess Pessimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
VIX
VIX Term Structure
Total Put/Call Ratio
Dumb Money Confidence
Stock/Bond Ratio
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Equity Put/Call Ratio De-Trended
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
Equity Hedging Index
Risk Appetite Index
AAII Bull Ratio
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 18%
Bearish for Stocks
NYSE Arms Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
SKEW Index
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

Click here to view the Phase Table on the site.

Ranks

Click here to view on the site (Ranks tab on the Dashboard).

Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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