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Daily Report : A sell-off like few others

Jason Goepfert
2025-04-07
Of the most widely watched equity indices, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 have been hit hard. All three show a price pattern and magnitude of decline that have few precedents. The drastic declines of the past two sessions have been especially rare. The most consistent behavior following similar sell-offs was a rebound of medium-term duration.
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Headlines

A sell-off like few others: Of the most widely watched equity indices, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 have been hit hard. All three show a price pattern and magnitude of decline that have few precedents. The drastic declines of the past two sessions have been especially rare. The most consistent behavior following similar sell-offs was a rebound of medium-term duration.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 87% Dumb Money Confidence: 17%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A sell-off like few others

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
Of the most widely watched equity indices, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 have been hit hard. All three show a price pattern and magnitude of decline that have few precedents. The drastic declines of the past two sessions have been especially rare. The most consistent behavior following similar sell-offs was a rebound of medium-term duration.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 46%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
SPY Liquidity Premium
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Equity Hedging Index
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Sector Breadth
Smart Money Confidence
S&P 500 Down Pressure
Stock/Bond Ratio
% Showing Excess Pessimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
VIX
VIX Term Structure
Dumb Money Confidence
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
Equity Put/Call Ratio De-Trended
Risk Appetite Index
AAII Bull Ratio
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 18%
Bearish for Stocks
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
SKEW Index
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Retail Money Market Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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