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Daily Report : TradingEdge Weekly for Apr 4 - Correction correlations, new low expansion, interest rate cycles

Jason Goepfert
2025-04-04
This week, we saw that post-correction periods most like the current one, and 50-day periods after other presidential inaugurations most like the current one, have mostly preceded weak returns for stocks. As new lows expand, credit spread trends are unfavorable, and fundamental data like manufacturing orders versus prices are, too. We look at a long-term model for interest rates, and using PMI data for Bitcoin.
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TradingEdge Weekly for Apr 4 - Correction correlations, new low expansion, interest rate cycles: This week, we saw that post-correction periods most like the current one, and 50-day periods after other presidential inaugurations most like the current one, have mostly preceded weak returns for stocks. As new lows expand, credit spread trends are unfavorable, and fundamental data like manufacturing orders versus prices are, too. We look at a long-term model for interest rates, and using PMI data for Bitcoin.

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Smart Money Confidence: 80% Dumb Money Confidence: 27%

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Research

TradingEdge Weekly for Apr 4 - Correction correlations, new low expansion, interest rate cycles

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
This week, we saw that post-correction periods most like the current one, and 50-day periods after other presidential inaugurations most like the current one, have mostly preceded weak returns for stocks. As new lows expand, credit spread trends are unfavorable, and fundamental data like manufacturing orders versus prices are, too. We look at a long-term model for interest rates, and using PMI data for Bitcoin.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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