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Daily Report : TradingEdge Weekly for Mar 28 - Revisions decline, 200-day behavior, dollar seasonals

Jason Goepfert
2025-03-28
This week, we saw fear recede for a while, and some other indicators gave bullish readings. While the S&P 500 reclaimed its 200-day moving average, that may not necessarily be an all-clear depending on how it acts in the days and weeks ahead. The average S&P stock is now in a relative uptrend, but other markets like Germany and India have done better. Some seasonal forces are at play in sectors and currencies.
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Headlines

TradingEdge Weekly for Mar 28 - Revisions decline, 200-day behavior, dollar seasonals: This week, we saw fear recede for a while, and some other indicators gave bullish readings. While the S&P 500 reclaimed its 200-day moving average, that may not necessarily be an all-clear depending on how it acts in the days and weeks ahead. The average S&P stock is now in a relative uptrend, but other markets like Germany and India have done better. Some seasonal forces are at play in sectors and currencies.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 80% Dumb Money Confidence: 38%

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Research

TradingEdge Weekly for Mar 28 - Revisions decline, 200-day behavior, dollar seasonals

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
This week, we saw fear recede for a while, and some other indicators gave bullish readings. While the S&P 500 reclaimed its 200-day moving average, that may not necessarily be an all-clear depending on how it acts in the days and weeks ahead. The average S&P stock is now in a relative uptrend, but other markets like Germany and India have done better. Some seasonal forces are at play in sectors and currencies.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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% Showing Pessimism: 26%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
VIX Term Structure
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Sector Breadth
Smart Money Confidence
S&P 500 Down Pressure
OEX Open Interest Ratio
OEX Put/Call Ratio
AAII Bull Ratio
Risk Appetite Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 14%
Bearish for Stocks
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

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Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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