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Daily Report : The fear gauge shifted lower, triggering a buy signal for stocks

Jason Goepfert
2025-03-25
A swing trading system leveraging the Volatility Index (VIX) to spot reversals in expected volatility triggered a bullish alert for stocks. Similar signals saw the S&P 500 rise 75% of the time over the next month.
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Headlines

The fear gauge shifted lower, triggering a buy signal for stocks: A swing trading system leveraging the Volatility Index (VIX) to spot reversals in expected volatility triggered a bullish alert for stocks. Similar signals saw the S&P 500 rise 75% of the time over the next month.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 71% Dumb Money Confidence: 40%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

The fear gauge shifted lower, triggering a buy signal for stocks

By Dean Christians

BOTTOM LINE
A swing trading system leveraging the Volatility Index (VIX) to spot reversals in expected volatility triggered a bullish alert for stocks. Similar signals saw the S&P 500 rise 75% of the time over the next month.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 18%
Bullish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Sector Breadth
Smart Money Confidence
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Risk Appetite Index
AAII Bull Ratio
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 23%
Bearish for Stocks
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Retail Money Market Ratio
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Equity Put/Call Ratio
S&P 500 Down Pressure
SKEW Index
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

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Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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