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Daily Report : TradingEdge Weekly for Mar 21 - Quick correction, sliding SKEW, relative gold

Jason Goepfert
2025-03-21
This week, we saw that the S&P 500 fell into a correction, but quickly reversed, with many investors jumping back after selling according to some sentiment surveys. Volatility expectations have plunged as seasonality suggests more gains could be in store. Gold is in the midst of a positive 4-year cycle, though may face some shorter-term headwinds after soaring relative to stocks.
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Headlines

TradingEdge Weekly for Mar 21 - Quick correction, sliding SKEW, relative gold: This week, we saw that the S&P 500 fell into a correction, but quickly reversed, with many investors jumping back after selling according to some sentiment surveys. Volatility expectations have plunged as seasonality suggests more gains could be in store. Gold is in the midst of a positive 4-year cycle, though may face some shorter-term headwinds after soaring relative to stocks.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 73% Dumb Money Confidence: 37%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

TradingEdge Weekly for Mar 21 - Quick correction, sliding SKEW, relative gold

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
This week, we saw that the S&P 500 fell into a correction, but quickly reversed, with many investors jumping back after selling according to some sentiment surveys. Volatility expectations have plunged as seasonality suggests more gains could be in store. Gold is in the midst of a positive 4-year cycle, though may face some shorter-term headwinds after soaring relative to stocks.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 25%
Bullish for Stocks
Smart Money Confidence
VIX
VIX Term Structure
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Sector Breadth
SPY Liquidity Premium
S&P 500 Down Pressure
AAII Bull Ratio
Risk Appetite Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 16%
Bearish for Stocks
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
SKEW Index
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Retail Money Market Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Mutual Fund Cash Level
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio

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Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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