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Daily Report : A historic performance gap between the S&P 500 and gold

Jason Goepfert
2025-03-20
For only the 18th time since 1972, the 3-month rate of change spread between the S&P 500 and gold futures dropped by more than -24% with equities in correction territory. Comparable signals suggest stocks bounce and gold consolidates over the next few months.
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Headlines

A historic performance gap between the S&P 500 and gold: For only the 18th time since 1972, the 3-month rate of change spread between the S&P 500 and gold futures dropped by more than -24% with equities in correction territory. Comparable signals suggest stocks bounce and gold consolidates over the next few months.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 71% Dumb Money Confidence: 37%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A historic performance gap between the S&P 500 and gold

By Dean Christians

BOTTOM LINE
For only the 18th time since 1972, the 3-month rate of change spread between the S&P 500 and gold futures dropped by more than -24% with equities in correction territory. Comparable signals suggest stocks bounce and gold consolidates over the next few months.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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% Showing Pessimism: 23%
Bullish for Stocks
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VIX Term Structure
OEX Put/Call Ratio
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Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
AAII Bull Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 25%
Bearish for Stocks
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
S&P 500 Down Pressure
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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