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Daily Report : Surveys say investors gave up...then hurried back

Jason Goepfert
2025-03-18
The Investor's Intelligence survey showed more bears than bulls among newsletter writers, a rare sign since the financial crisis. Historically, this has preceded multi-month rebounds. The drop in sentiment across surveys pushed the AIM Model toward a reading of near maximum bearishness, again a decent sign for a rebound.
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Headlines

Surveys say investors gave up...then hurried back: The Investor's Intelligence survey showed more bears than bulls among newsletter writers, a rare sign since the financial crisis. Historically, this has preceded multi-month rebounds. The drop in sentiment across surveys pushed the AIM Model toward a reading of near maximum bearishness, again a decent sign for a rebound.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 73% Dumb Money Confidence: 40%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

Surveys say investors gave up...then hurried back

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
The Investor's Intelligence survey showed more bears than bulls among newsletter writers, a rare sign since the financial crisis. Historically, this has preceded multi-month rebounds. The drop in sentiment across surveys pushed the AIM Model toward a reading of near maximum bearishness, again a decent sign for a rebound.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

Click here to view on the site (% Extremes and "Excess" tabs on the dashboard).
% Showing Pessimism: 26%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
SPY Liquidity Premium
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Sector Breadth
Smart Money Confidence
VIX
VIX Term Structure
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Risk Appetite Index
AAII Bull Ratio
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 32%
Bearish for Stocks
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
NYSE Arms Index
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Retail Money Market Ratio
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
S&P 500 Down Pressure
ISE Call/Put Ratio
% Showing Excess Optimism
SKEW Index
Major Index Combo
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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