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Daily Report : TradingEdge Weekly for Mar 7 - Technical warnings, sector divergences, commodity trend-following

Jason Goepfert
2025-03-07
This week, we saw that there have been multiple warning from stocks, sectors, technical indicators, and high-yield bonds heading into the latest selling pressure. These tends to precede medium-term weakness in stocks. Using some simple-to-follow trend-following metrics for commodities. The Canadian dollar may be setting up a contrarian opportunity.
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Headlines

TradingEdge Weekly for Mar 7 - Technical warnings, sector divergences, commodity trend-following: This week, we saw that there have been multiple warning from stocks, sectors, technical indicators, and high-yield bonds heading into the latest selling pressure. These tends to precede medium-term weakness in stocks. Using some simple-to-follow trend-following metrics for commodities. The Canadian dollar may be setting up a contrarian opportunity.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 62% Dumb Money Confidence: 36%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

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Agriculture

Research

TradingEdge Weekly for Mar 7 - Technical warnings, sector divergences, commodity trend-following

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
This week, we saw that there have been multiple warning from stocks, sectors, technical indicators, and high-yield bonds heading into the latest selling pressure. These tends to precede medium-term weakness in stocks. Using some simple-to-follow trend-following metrics for commodities. The Canadian dollar may be setting up a contrarian opportunity.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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% Showing Pessimism: 33%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
VIX
VIX Term Structure
SPY Liquidity Premium
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
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S&P 500 Down Pressure
% Showing Excess Pessimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
AAII Bull Ratio
Risk Appetite Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 21%
Bearish for Stocks
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
SKEW Index
OEX Put/Call Ratio
NAAIM Exposure Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
AAII Allocation - Stocks
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NYSE Available Cash
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Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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