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Daily Report : A trend-following approach to investing in commodities - Part II

Jason Goepfert
2025-03-06
Commodities are an afterthought for most investors. Nevertheless, history is replete with long periods when commodities vastly outperformed stocks. The potential for this in the years ahead remains high. Broad-based commodity ETFs offer investors a simple way to play.
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Headlines

A trend-following approach to investing in commodities - Part II: Commodities are an afterthought for most investors. Nevertheless, history is replete with long periods when commodities vastly outperformed stocks. The potential for this in the years ahead remains high. Broad-based commodity ETFs offer investors a simple way to play.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 65% Dumb Money Confidence: 34%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A trend-following approach to investing in commodities - Part II

By Jay Kaeppel

BOTTOM LINE
Commodities are an afterthought for most investors. Nevertheless, history is replete with long periods when commodities vastly outperformed stocks. The potential for this in the years ahead remains high. Broad-based commodity ETFs offer investors a simple way to play.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 25%
Bullish for Stocks
VIX
Inverse ETF Volume
VIX Term Structure
Rydex Sector Breadth
Risk Appetite Index
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Smart Money Confidence
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
AAII Bull Ratio
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 32%
Bearish for Stocks
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE Arms Index
S&P 500 Down Pressure
SKEW Index
% Showing Excess Optimism
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Retail Money Market Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NAAIM Exposure Index
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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