Daily Report : The S-TCTM Risk Warning Model Triggers a Risk-Off Signal

by Sentimentrader

2026-03-04

Headlines

The S-TCTM Risk Warning Model Triggers a Risk-Off Signal: The S-TCTM Risk-Warning Model triggered a rare risk-off signal due to deteriorating breadth and high optimism. Historically, this precedes weak S&P 500 returns and skewed downside risk, warranting defensive positioning.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 57% Dumb Money Confidence: 57%

Daily Report : The S-TCTM Risk Warning Model Triggers a Risk-Off Signal

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

The S-TCTM Risk Warning Model Triggers a Risk-Off Signal

By by Sentimentrader

BOTTOM LINE
The S-TCTM Risk-Warning Model triggered a rare risk-off signal due to deteriorating breadth and high optimism. Historically, this precedes weak S&P 500 returns and skewed downside risk, warranting defensive positioning.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
SPY -- Down, Short-Term

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 19%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
VIX
Rydex Bearish Flow
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
S&P 500 Down Pressure
VIX Term Structure
OEX Open Interest Ratio
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer

% Showing Optimism: 21%
Bearish for Stocks
Rydex Money Market %
Rydex Ratio
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NAAIM Exposure Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level