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Daily Report : A warning sign from high-yield bonds

Jason Goepfert
2025-03-04
High-yield bonds have long been a decent bellwether for stocks. A recent signal is unfavorable stocks - but all is not necessarily lost. We detail the history and forward implications herein.
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Headlines

A warning sign from high-yield bonds: High-yield bonds have long been a decent bellwether for stocks. A recent signal is unfavorable stocks - but all is not necessarily lost. We detail the history and forward implications herein.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 59% Dumb Money Confidence: 37%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

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Research

A warning sign from high-yield bonds

By Jay Kaeppel

BOTTOM LINE
High-yield bonds have long been a decent bellwether for stocks. A recent signal is unfavorable stocks - but all is not necessarily lost. We detail the history and forward implications herein.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 19%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
S&P 500 Down Pressure
VIX
VIX Term Structure
AAII Bull Ratio
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
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CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 23%
Bearish for Stocks
Retail Money Market Ratio
Rydex Bearish Flow
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Rydex Money Market %
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
SKEW Index
OEX Put/Call Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
NAAIM Exposure Index
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
Mutual Fund Cash Level

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Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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