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Daily Report : TradingEdge Weekly for Feb 28 - Volatility differences, Treasury cycles, Bitcoin breakdown

Jason Goepfert
2025-02-28
This week, we saw that traders are betting more on stock volatility than index volatility as divergences form with important breadth indicators. Participation among cyclical stocks is lagging, and corporate insiders appear uninspired to buy. Treasuries are facing some seasonal headwinds. Gold's rally has spiked its Sharpe ratio to a historical extreme. Bitcoin broke down.
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TradingEdge Weekly for Feb 28 - Volatility differences, Treasury cycles, Bitcoin breakdown: This week, we saw that traders are betting more on stock volatility than index volatility as divergences form with important breadth indicators. Participation among cyclical stocks is lagging, and corporate insiders appear uninspired to buy. Treasuries are facing some seasonal headwinds. Gold's rally has spiked its Sharpe ratio to a historical extreme. Bitcoin broke down.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 53% Dumb Money Confidence: 49%

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Research

TradingEdge Weekly for Feb 28 - Volatility differences, Treasury cycles, Bitcoin breakdown

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
This week, we saw that traders are betting more on stock volatility than index volatility as divergences form with important breadth indicators. Participation among cyclical stocks is lagging, and corporate insiders appear uninspired to buy. Treasuries are facing some seasonal headwinds. Gold's rally has spiked its Sharpe ratio to a historical extreme. Bitcoin broke down.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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% Showing Pessimism: 23%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
VIX
VIX Term Structure
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
S&P 500 Down Pressure
OEX Put/Call Ratio
AAII Bull Ratio
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 25%
Bearish for Stocks
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
SKEW Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
Options Speculation Index
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
Equity Hedging Index
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
Mutual Fund Cash Level
AAII Allocation - Stocks

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Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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