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Daily Report : Gold's rally has been Sharpe, too

Jason Goepfert
2025-02-26
The past year has been among the "easiest" in history for gold bugs. The 1-year Sharpe ratio for gold is now among the top 1% of all days since 1975. Other high ratios have tended to precede extended corrections. Traders have been jumping into ETFs and futures, suggesting exposure is high just as it enters a seasonal soft spot.
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Headlines

Gold's rally has been Sharpe, too: The past year has been among the "easiest" in history for gold bugs. The 1-year Sharpe ratio for gold is now among the top 1% of all days since 1975. Other high ratios have tended to precede extended corrections. Traders have been jumping into ETFs and futures, suggesting exposure is high just as it enters a seasonal soft spot.

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Smart Money Confidence: 53% Dumb Money Confidence: 53%

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Research

Gold's rally has been Sharpe, too

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
The past year has been among the "easiest" in history for gold bugs. The 1-year Sharpe ratio for gold is now among the top 1% of all days since 1975. Other high ratios have tended to precede extended corrections. Traders have been jumping into ETFs and futures, suggesting exposure is high just as it enters a seasonal soft spot.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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% Showing Pessimism: 11%
Bullish for Stocks
S&P 500 Down Pressure
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VIX Term Structure
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CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 32%
Bearish for Stocks
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% Showing Excess Optimism
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