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Daily Report : Never short a dull President

Jason Goepfert
2025-02-12
The S&P 500 is the world's most benchmarked equity index, and it has been moving quite a bit in the weeks following President Trump's inauguration. The index's Average True Range is relatively high, and it is significantly above where it was after the election. These suggest some anxiety about policy changes and aren't a great sign for forward returns.
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Headlines

Never short a dull President: The S&P 500 is the world's most benchmarked equity index, and it has been moving quite a bit in the weeks following President Trump's inauguration. The index's Average True Range is relatively high, and it is significantly above where it was after the election. These suggest some anxiety about policy changes and aren't a great sign for forward returns.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 43% Dumb Money Confidence: 58%

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Research

Never short a dull President

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
The S&P 500 is the world's most benchmarked equity index, and it has been moving quite a bit in the weeks following President Trump's inauguration. The index's Average True Range is relatively high, and it is significantly above where it was after the election. These suggest some anxiety about policy changes and aren't a great sign for forward returns.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 5%
Bullish for Stocks
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 32%
Bearish for Stocks
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
SPY Liquidity Premium
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
ISE Call/Put Ratio
% Showing Excess Pessimism
% Showing Excess Optimism
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
Equity Hedging Index
Options Speculation Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

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Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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