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Daily Report : Bond market calm supports equities

by Sentimentrader
2026-02-09
Credit default swaps (CDX) show bond traders remain calm, a historical tailwind for stocks. When CDX is in a downtrend, the S&P 500 typically generates superior risk-adjusted returns. Current trends support a continued "risk-on" stance.
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Headlines

Bond market calm supports equities: Credit default swaps (CDX) show bond traders remain calm, a historical tailwind for stocks. When CDX is in a downtrend, the S&P 500 typically generates superior risk-adjusted returns. Current trends support a continued "risk-on" stance.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 45% Dumb Money Confidence: 65%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

Bond market calm supports equities

By by Sentimentrader

BOTTOM LINE
Credit default swaps (CDX) show bond traders remain calm, a historical tailwind for stocks. When CDX is in a downtrend, the S&P 500 typically generates superior risk-adjusted returns. Current trends support a continued "risk-on" stance.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 11%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
Rydex Bearish Flow
OEX Open Interest Ratio
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 37%
Bearish for Stocks
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Optimism
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
S&P 500 Down Pressure
Options Speculation Index
SKEW Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Retail Money Market Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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