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Daily Report : Several sentiment gauges recover from a pessimistic phase, signaling a shift to risk-on

Jason Goepfert
2025-01-22
Several sentiment indicators reversed direction after a stretch of market pessimism, prompting trading systems focused on sentiment shifts to issue risk-on signals. Similar precedents produced exceptional near-term performance for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.
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Headlines

Several sentiment gauges recover from a pessimistic phase, signaling a shift to risk-on: Several sentiment indicators reversed direction after a stretch of market pessimism, prompting trading systems focused on sentiment shifts to issue risk-on signals. Similar precedents produced exceptional near-term performance for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 36% Dumb Money Confidence: 56%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

Several sentiment gauges recover from a pessimistic phase, signaling a shift to risk-on

By Dean Christians

BOTTOM LINE
Several sentiment indicators reversed direction after a stretch of market pessimism, prompting trading systems focused on sentiment shifts to issue risk-on signals. Similar precedents produced exceptional near-term performance for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
SPY -- Up, Medium-Term

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

Click here to view the Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview on the site.

Indicators at Extremes

Click here to view on the site (% Extremes and "Excess" tabs on the dashboard).
% Showing Pessimism: 9%
Bullish for Stocks
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
OEX Put/Call Ratio
AAII Bull Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 35%
Bearish for Stocks
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Equity Put/Call Ratio
S&P 500 Down Pressure
% Showing Excess Optimism
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
Options Speculation Index
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
NAAIM Exposure Index
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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