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Daily Report : An In-Depth Look at the Sentimentrader's New TCTM Confirmation Model - Part I

by Sentimentrader
2026-01-14
The S-TCTM Composite Confirmation Model aggregates 10 diverse metrics to confirm the durability of market uptrends. A signal triggers when 30% of components are active, historically indicating broad-based structural improvement.
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Headlines

An In-Depth Look at the Sentimentrader's New TCTM Confirmation Model - Part I: The S-TCTM Composite Confirmation Model aggregates 10 diverse metrics to confirm the durability of market uptrends. A signal triggers when 30% of components are active, historically indicating broad-based structural improvement.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 33% Dumb Money Confidence: 71%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

An In-Depth Look at the Sentimentrader's New TCTM Confirmation Model - Part I

By by Sentimentrader

BOTTOM LINE
The S-TCTM Composite Confirmation Model aggregates 10 diverse metrics to confirm the durability of market uptrends. A signal triggers when 30% of components are active, historically indicating broad-based structural improvement.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

Click here to view the Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview on the site.

Indicators at Extremes

Click here to view on the site (% Extremes and "Excess" tabs on the dashboard).
% Showing Pessimism: 11%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
S&P 500 Down Pressure
OEX Open Interest Ratio
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 40%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Smart Money Confidence
Dumb Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Optimism
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
ISE Call/Put Ratio
VIX Term Structure
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
Options Speculation Index
Risk Appetite Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

Click here to view the Phase Table on the site.

Ranks

Click here to view on the site (Ranks tab on the Dashboard).

Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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