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< BACK TO ALL REPORTS

Daily Report : M2? Who knew?

Jason Goepfert
2025-01-14
Money moves the market. Historically, the stock market has performed significantly better when the money supply is rising than when it is falling. Herein, we detail an indicator designed to objectively designate the money supply trend as favorable or unfavorable for stocks.
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Headlines

M2? Who knew?: Money moves the market. Historically, the stock market has performed significantly better when the money supply is rising than when it is falling. Herein, we detail an indicator designed to objectively designate the money supply trend as favorable or unfavorable for stocks.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 46% Dumb Money Confidence: 39%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

M2? Who knew?

By Jay Kaeppel

BOTTOM LINE
Money moves the market. Historically, the stock market has performed significantly better when the money supply is rising than when it is falling. Herein, we detail an indicator designed to objectively designate the money supply trend as favorable or unfavorable for stocks.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 9%
Bullish for Stocks
Rydex Bearish Flow
AAII Bull Ratio
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 33%
Bearish for Stocks
% Showing Excess Optimism
Rydex Money Market %
Rydex Ratio
Retail Money Market Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
S&P 500 Down Pressure
Options Speculation Index
SKEW Index
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
Equity Put/Call Ratio
ISE Call/Put Ratio
Total Put/Call Ratio
NAAIM Exposure Index
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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