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Daily Report : TradingEdge Weekly for Jan 10 - Sentiment reset, lagging participation, material washout

Jason Goepfert
2025-01-10
This week, we saw that multiple models show that investor sentiment has been reset. Trend-following traders have among the lowest optimism levels in two years. One trouble spot is lagging participation among a broad array of stocks, which have fallen much more than indices like the S&P 500. We also look at implications of an un-inverted yield curve, a washed out basic materials sector, and natural gas seasonality.
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Headlines

TradingEdge Weekly for Jan 10 - Sentiment reset, lagging participation, material washout: This week, we saw that multiple models show that investor sentiment has been reset. Trend-following traders have among the lowest optimism levels in two years. One trouble spot is lagging participation among a broad array of stocks, which have fallen much more than indices like the S&P 500. We also look at implications of an un-inverted yield curve, a washed out basic materials sector, and natural gas seasonality.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 52% Dumb Money Confidence: 41%

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Research

TradingEdge Weekly for Jan 10 - Sentiment reset, lagging participation, material washout

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
This week, we saw that multiple models show that investor sentiment has been reset. Trend-following traders have among the lowest optimism levels in two years. One trouble spot is lagging participation among a broad array of stocks, which have fallen much more than indices like the S&P 500. We also look at implications of an un-inverted yield curve, a washed out basic materials sector, and natural gas seasonality.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 14%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
Rydex Bearish Flow
Total Put/Call Ratio
OEX Put/Call Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
SPY Liquidity Premium
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 25%
Bearish for Stocks
Equity Put/Call Ratio
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
SKEW Index
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
Retail Money Market Ratio
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
Options Speculation Index
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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