Products
SentimenTrader Trading Tools
‍
Backtest Engine
My Trading Toolkit
Correlation Analysis
Seasonality
Market Prediction
Indicators & Data API
‍
Proprietary Indicators & Charts
Market Data API
Strategies & Scanner
‍
50+ Trading Strategies
Smart Stock Scanner
Smart Option Scanner
Research Reports
‍
Research Solutions
Reports Library
Free Resources
Simple Backtest Calculator
Simple Seasonality Calculator
The Kelly Criterion Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
Public Research Reports
Education
Sentiment Indicators
Technical Indicators
Pricing
Company
About
In the News
Testimonials
Client Success Stories
Contact
Log inLoginSign up
< BACK TO ALL REPORTS

Daily Report : The end of optimism

Jason Goepfert
2025-01-08
The average stock has been struggling in recent weeks, and that has weighed heavily on sentiment. For the first time in more than 90 days, the "dumb money" is less confident in a rally than the "smart money." After similar behavior during the past 25 years, stocks tended to rally over the following six months.
View/Print a PDF version of this Report

Headlines

The end of optimism: The average stock has been struggling in recent weeks, and that has weighed heavily on sentiment. For the first time in more than 90 days, the "dumb money" is less confident in a rally than the "smart money." After similar behavior during the past 25 years, stocks tended to rally over the following six months.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 54% Dumb Money Confidence: 43%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

The end of optimism

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
The average stock has been struggling in recent weeks, and that has weighed heavily on sentiment. For the first time in more than 90 days, the "dumb money" is less confident in a rally than the "smart money." After similar behavior during the past 25 years, stocks tended to rally over the following six months.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

Click here to view the Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview on the site.

Indicators at Extremes

Click here to view on the site (% Extremes and "Excess" tabs on the dashboard).
% Showing Pessimism: 12%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
SPY Liquidity Premium
Rydex Bearish Flow
S&P 500 Down Pressure
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 26%
Bearish for Stocks
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
NYSE Arms Index
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Equity Put/Call Ratio
ISE Call/Put Ratio
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
Options Speculation Index
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

Click here to view the Phase Table on the site.

Ranks

Click here to view on the site (Ranks tab on the Dashboard).

Sentiment Around The World

Click here to view on the site.

Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
PRODUCTS
SentimenTrader
Trading Tools
Indicators & Data API
‍
Strategies & Scanner
‍
Research Reports
FREE
RESOUrCES
Simple Backtest
Calculator
Simple Seasonality
Calculator
The Kelly Criterion
Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
‍
Public Research Reports
‍
Education
Sentiment Indicators
‍
Technical Indicators
‍
Pricing
Bundle pricing
‍
FAQ
‍
Announcements
‍
COMPANY
‍
About
‍
In the News
‍
Testimonials
‍
Client Success Stories
CONTACT
‍
General Inquiries
‍
Media Inquiries
‍
Financial Professionals Inquiries
‍
© 2026 Sundial Capital Research Inc. All rights reserved.
Setsail Marketing
TermsPrivacyAffiliate Program
Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

Testimonial Disclosure: Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.