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Daily Report : The Macro Index Model favors the S&P 500 over Crude Oil

by Sentimentrader
2026-01-05
The Macro Index Model (MIM) has crossed 0.6, signaling economic resilience. While this has historically been a perfect buy signal for the S&P 500 over 6 months, it often creates a divergence where Crude Oil underperforms. We analyze this split.
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The Macro Index Model favors the S&P 500 over Crude Oil: The Macro Index Model (MIM) has crossed 0.6, signaling economic resilience. While this has historically been a perfect buy signal for the S&P 500 over 6 months, it often creates a divergence where Crude Oil underperforms. We analyze this split.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 31% Dumb Money Confidence: 66%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

The Macro Index Model favors the S&P 500 over Crude Oil

By by Sentimentrader

BOTTOM LINE
The Macro Index Model (MIM) has crossed 0.6, signaling economic resilience. While this has historically been a perfect buy signal for the S&P 500 over 6 months, it often creates a divergence where Crude Oil underperforms. We analyze this split.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
SPY -- Up, Medium-Term

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 9%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
OEX Open Interest Ratio
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 44%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Smart Money Confidence
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Optimism
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
VIX
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
S&P 500 Down Pressure
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
ISE Call/Put Ratio
VIX Term Structure
Options Speculation Index
SKEW Index
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
NAAIM Exposure Index
AAII Bull Ratio
Risk Appetite Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Retail Money Market Ratio
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Mutual Fund Cash Level

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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