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Copper/Gold Ratio flashing a favorable sign for metals and miners

Jay Kaeppel
2023-10-16
Given the endless hype surrounding gold - and no net price gain in twelve years - it is easy to ignore the yellow metal at times. However, the recent action of the Copper/Gold ratio suggests that gold, metals, and gold stocks may be worth a closer look.

Key points

  • Gold receives a great deal of attention (and hype) even though it is unchanged over the past three and 12-year periods
  • The Copper/Gold Ratio just crossed a critical threshold
  • Historically, this action has been favorable for gold, metals in general, and gold mining stocks

Copper/Gold Ratio crosses a threshold

As the name implies, the Copper/Gold Ratio compares the price of copper to the price of gold. It essentially measures the trend in industrial metals versus that in precious metals. Our calculation uses Copper and Gold Continous Futures contracts. 

Let's look at some market action when the Copper/Gold Ratio is below 0.19, excluding overlapping signals in the last year. 

Copper/Gold Ratio versus precious metals

ETFs allow traders to gain exposure to commodities without trading commodity futures. SPDR Gold Shares (ticker GLD) is an ETF that tracks gold futures. The chart below highlights those dates when the Copper/Gold Ratio was below 0.19, excluding overlapping signals with 1-year. The table summarizes GLD performance.

The chart below looks at platinum futures and highlights those dates when the Copper/Gold Ratio was below 0.19, excluding overlapping signals with 1-year. The table summarizes platinum performance.

abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF (PPLT) is an ETF that tracks platinum futures.

Copper/Gold Ratio versus industrial metals

iShares Silver Trust (ticker SLV) is an ETF that tracks silver futures. The chart below highlights those dates when the Copper/Gold Ratio was below 0.19, excluding overlapping signals with 1-year. The table summarizes SLV performance.

The chart below looks at copper futures and highlights those dates when the Copper/Gold Ratio was below 0.19, excluding overlapping signals with 1-year. The table summarizes copper performance.

United States Copper Index Fund, LP (CPER) ETF is designed to track the price of copper.

Copper/Gold Ratio versus gold stocks

VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) tracks an index of gold mining stocks. The chart below highlights those dates when the Copper/Gold Ratio was below 0.19, excluding overlapping signals with 1-year. The table summarizes GDX's performance.

Gold traders looking for an aggressive bullish play might consider favoring gold stocks over the metal itself. That said, note that - results so far this month notwithstanding - gold stocks have historically been poor performers in the month of October.

What the research tells us…

There is almost always an above-average amount of bullish hype surrounding gold and gold stocks. Like the boy who cried wolf, bullish gold pundits understandably get routinely tuned out. Likewise, though the results above are compelling, they represent only one indicator and involve a very small sample size. So, it should not be relied upon solely as a reason to buy - or not buy - metals or metals-related ETFs. That said, a combination of geopolitical concerns, ongoing inflation concerns, and a potential cup with handle formation (and don't forget this obscure, but possibly once again relevant action in LIT Optix) - combined with the signal highlighted above - might give investors and traders some reason to consider a long position in metals and/or gold mining stocks.

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