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commodities

Jay Kaeppel
2026-03-16
Price fluctuations in physical commodities are primarily driven by supply and demand. However, the nature of the supply/demand cycles for many commodities tends to be highly cyclical. We highlight a variety of potential opportunities herein.

Key points:

  • Seasonality is not a roadmap of the future, but merely an average of the past; for this reason, seasonality is best used when price action and the expected seasonal trend are in alignment
  • blah
  • Short-term seasonal periods are absolutely "hit or miss" affairs, so the opportunities detailed below in Platinum, Corn, Soybeans, Palladium, US Dollar, Natural Gas, and the Euro are only for those traders who understand the risks involved and who are willing to take action to minimize their risk

Commodities have advanced so far in 2026; further gains appear possible

The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Price Index (BCOMSP) gained more than 15% in 2025. Precious metals led the way, with the Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund (DBP) leading the way with a 70% gain. Historically, rallies in precious metals have tended to precede rallies in broader commodity indexes. Will the same thing unfold now? We cannot predict. However, the performance of commodities relative to stocks has been beaten down in recent years. Given the current high valuations of stocks (the Shiller PE Ratio is presently above 38), there is potential for a strong reversion that favors commodities over stocks in the years ahead.

In the meantime, trading opportunities (in futures contracts and/or related ETFs, as detailed) may soon emerge in the markets listed below. 

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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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