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Caution time in small-caps and metals & mining

Jay Kaeppel
2022-06-14
The small-cap space and the metals and mining sector are both entering seasonally unfavorable periods. In this piece, we detail the history, which suggests standing aside these two areas for the time being.

Key Points

  • Small caps and the metals & mining sector are entering seasonally unfavorable periods
  • Given these unfavorable seasonal trends combined with the overall weakness in the stock market, investors may be wise to look elsewhere for bullish opportunities in the near term.

Small caps

The chart below displays the annual seasonal trend for ticker RUT (Russell 2000 Small-cap index). RUT faces an unfavorable seasonal headwind from Trading Day of the Year #110 through TDY #153. For 2022, this seasonally unfavorable period extends through the close on August 10th.

The chart below displays the cumulative hypothetical % +(-) achieved by holding long ticker RUT from TDY 110 through TDY #153 every year since 1979.

The table below displays a summary of the results.

Metals and Mining

The chart below displays the annual seasonal trend for ticker XME (SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF). Note that XME faces an unfavorable seasonal headwind from Trading Day of the Year #110 through TDY #123. For 2022, this seasonally unfavorable period extends through the close on June 28th.

The chart below displays the cumulative hypothetical % +(-) achieved by holding long ticker XME from TDY 110 through TDY #123 every year since 2007.

The table below displays a summary of the results.

What the research tells us…

Successful investing involves spotting opportunities with solid potential and then making decisions regarding capital allocation and risk management. Another related key is knowing when to stand aide a given sector or asset class. An unfavorable seasonal trend does not mean that small-caps and metals and mining won't move higher in the near term. But the real question for now is, "is this a good place to allocate capital?" History suggests that the answer is "no."

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