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Bottom line

Jason Goepfert
2020-06-19

The suggestion is flat/lower prices short- to medium-term, and higher prices long-term. Indicators are currently showing excessive optimism, with Dumb Money Confidence was recently near 80% and has gyrated since then, during what appears to still be an unhealthy market environment, and price reversals on Friday. The Active Studies show that when we look at stocks from various perspectives, there is a heavy positive skew over the medium-term long-term. Recently, there have been troubling signs of reckless speculation, but the breadth thrusts and recoveries have an almost unblemished record at preceding higher prices over a 6-12 month time frame. Indicators and studies for other markets are mixed with no strong conclusion.

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