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Bond doji and social bulls

Jason Goepfert
2020-12-11

The 20+ year Treasury bond fund, TLT, is reversing some early gains, carving out a doji pattern. It's considered a negative reversal signal of buying exhaustion when coming after a rally, though its record is mixed.

At the same time, Social Sentiment on TLT has dropped below 0.75 over the past week. This functions like a put/call ratio, with a low reading meaning that folks on Twitter have been using more positive than negative words in association with the fund.

When the 5-day average was this low over the past 5 years, we can see how weak TLT did over the shorter-term. It's quite a bit worse than the opposite extreme when socially-minded investors were tweeting more negative than positive things about the fund.

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