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< BACK TO ALL REPORTS

Bond burst

Jason Goepfert
2021-02-24

Katie Greifeld of Bloomberg notes that the selling in Treasuries has been enough to push the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on TLT to its lowest level in more than 2 years.

It's not mattering at the moment, with the RSI now broaching the 20 level this morning for only the 3rd time in its history.

Granted, the fund's trend has been mostly up since inception, so it always looks like a good idea to buy the dip. The few times the RSI dropped below 23, it didn't work out right away, but at least further losses were limited.

If we look at drops below 25 on RSI, it was the same weak short-term pattern, but because of the trend, longer-term returns and risk/reward were great.

It's worth noting that these oversold conditions in bonds tended to lead to weak returns in the S&P 500 over the medium-term.

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