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Big island

Jason Goepfert
2020-04-15

Yesterday's low in the S&P 500 futures was more than 1% higher than the prior close. Today's high was more than 1% lower than yesterday's close. That left a big "island" on the chart, with the S&P at a 10-day high surrounded by gaps. It seems hard to believe, but the only time that's happened since 1982 was October 16, 2002. The textbooks tell us this should be a negative, but the S&P rallied hard after its only precedent. Looking at lesser extremes, the S&P still had a tendency to rally in the days and weeks ahead, so while it looks negative on a chart, at worst it has been "not negative" when it has triggered in the past. The S&P also rallied more than 2% yesterday then closed below yesterday's low today (h/t @andrewthrasher). That triggered several times in 2008, leading to large losses, but also in March 2003, March/October 2009, and January 2016 which led to large gains.

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