Big Drop in NAAIM Exposure Index
The National Association of Active Investment Managers reported the latest reading for the Exposure Index today. The Index dropped by 29.42% on a w/w basis.
Let's take a look at all other instances when the Index dropped by 29% or more.
Signal Performance
While the sample size is small, the results show weak conditions in the two-week time frame. The results confirm some other studies that Jason and I have noted in the last few days. One should not rule out some choppy conditions in the near-term. Please note, 2014 is the only other time a signal occurred in the same week as a new high.

Let's lower the threshold level to 25% and take a look at the signal. Short-term results in the 1-2 week timeframe continue to show a slight negative bias. The results in the 1-3 month timeframe are much better.

