April was Terrific (and why it matters)

Key Points:

• There has been a lot of talk lately about a positive outlook for stocks for the remainder of 2026, based on a strong performance in April
• For the record, I first wrote about this tendency five years ago (see here); The text below revisits and slightly expands that original study
• The bottom line is that if history proves an accurate guide (and that is never guaranteed), the sharp advance during April suggests that investors continue to give the bullish case the benefit of the doubt

The test and the benchmark

• Our test will identify those times when the S&P 500 Index gained 4.80% or more (using price only data) during the month of April 
• We will then look at the performance for the S&P 500 Index during the remainder of the year (May through December)
• As a benchmark, let's first look at how the S&P 500 typically performs from May through December

The table below summarizes the performance of the S&P 500 Index during May through December of every year since 1931. 

So, the key May through December benchmark numbers are that the S&P 500:

• Has gained gro