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Another odd day

Jason Goepfert
2020-12-28

For most of the past 4 months, breadth has been excellent, with broad participation, almost everything in gear, punctuated by impressive thrusts. Only recently, like the past couple of weeks, we've seen more oddities pile up. Mostly that's due to small-cap stocks, with some days seeing weakness while other parts of the market show strength. Monday was one of those days. The S&P 500 rose more than 0.5% to close at a new high, yet the NYSE Up Volume Ratio was below 50% (more volume flowing into declining than advancing securities). That's happened only 4 other times since 1962 (1995-10-19, 1999-07-07, 2013-04-02, and 2020-08-26), all leading to some weakness over the next 1-2 weeks. If we relax that to 55% or less Up Volume, we still mostly saw weakness over the next 2-8 weeks.


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