Another look at interest rate cycles

Key Points

Please forgive my apparent laziness. I am choosing today to republish three notes from last year regarding interest rate trends - and, by extension, bond prices

The notes look at a variety of interest rate cycles and several models created based on them - including the JK Bond Cycle Thermometer and the JK Bond Cycle Model

Bond cycles and models for review

#1. Interest rate cycles I have known and loved - Part I (2024-04-08)

#2. Interest rate cycles I have known and loved - Part II (2024-04-10)

#3. Interest rate cycles I have known and loved - Part III (2024-04-11)What the research tells us

Interest rate trends have behaved in a surprisingly consistent cyclical manner for many decades. While no seasonal or cyclical factor can be relied upon in a vacuum, they can do an excellent job keeping investors on the correct side of bond market price movements. Bond market investors are encouraged to review the information in the above-linked notes.