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Almost, but not quite

Jason Goepfert
2020-05-12

After trading below its 200-day moving average for more than 30 days, the S&P 500 had nearly been able to overtake its widely-watched long-term average. Without being able to rise above its average, sellers stepped back in and slapped the index for a 2% loss on Tuesday. Of the 7 other times this happened, the S&P showed a negative return either 1 or 2 months later each time (the dates were 1941-04-08, 1988-04-14, 2000-11-10, 2008-06-06, 2009-05-11, and 2011-10-25). There were 17 times it was rejected by 1.5% or more, leading to rebounds only 25% of the time over the next 2 months. There were 48 times it was rejected by 1% or more, with rebounds 2 months later only 30% of the time. This isn't a great sign for bulls here.

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