Active managers get aggressive again

Active investment managers polled by the NAAIM organization are leveraged long for the first time since August. The thing with this survey, however, is that it's not very useful as a contrary indicator, at least when managers get aggressively long. The Backtest Engine shows that when the average manager was more than 100% net long, the S&P 500 was higher 3 months later 88% of the time, averaging more than 4.2%. The GIF below shows it takes about 18 seconds to find out the danger of automatically assuming this high exposure is negative for stocks.