Products
SentimenTrader Trading Tools
‍
Backtest Engine
My Trading Toolkit
Correlation Analysis
Seasonality
Market Prediction
Indicators & Data API
‍
Proprietary Indicators & Charts
Market Data API
Strategies & Scanner
‍
50+ Trading Strategies
Smart Stock Scanner
Smart Option Scanner
Research Reports
‍
Research Solutions
Reports Library
Free Resources
Simple Backtest Calculator
Simple Seasonality Calculator
The Kelly Criterion Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
Public Research Reports
Education
Sentiment Indicators
Technical Indicators
Pricing
Company
About
In the News
Testimonials
Client Success Stories
Contact
Log inLoginSign up
< BACK TO ALL REPORTS

A trend-following system triggers a risk-off alert for global markets

Dean Christians
2023-03-17
A composite that measures IBD Power Trend signals for country ETFs triggered a risk-off alert for global markets. After similar signals, the MSCI ACWI World ex USA Index struggled over the next three months.

Key points:

  • A composite that measures IBD Power Trend signals for country ETFs triggers a risk-off alert
  • After similar signals, returns for a global index were flat to negative over the next three months

Country ETF price trends signal risk-off 

In my last IBD Power Trend update, I shared several sell signals for Chinese-based ETFs and stocks. At the time, most country ETFs remained on IBD Power Trend buy signals. With the recent turmoil in the markets, the bullish trend backdrop has taken a turn for the worse, with a Tsunami of sell signals.

The all-country ETF composite registered the 30th risk-off signal since 1997 on Wednesday. 

Annualized MSCI ACWI World ex USA Index returns are negative when the composite value falls below 20%, which is the case now. 

To learn more about the IBD Power Trend system, click here. 

Similar IBD composite signals preceded flat to negative returns 

When the IBD Power Trend composite for country ETFs triggers a risk-off signal, the trend deterioration tends to lead to additional downside follow-through for the MSCI ACWI World ex USA Index over the next month. With returns and win rates barely favorable on a medium-term basis, an allocation to a broad-based global index is not compelling for the foreseeable future.

A dwindling list of countries on an IBD Power Trend buy signal

Over 15 country ETFs registered a sell signal in the last ten sessions. 

Other recent sell signals

The composite for the Asia-Pacific region triggered a sell signal on 2023-03-09. Japan, the last remaining country in the Asia-Pacific region with a positive trend, reversed to a sell, which moved the composite to zero this week.

Emerging Markets

A composite that measures IBD Power Trend buy signals for emerging markets triggered a sell signal on 2023-03-09. 

What the research tells us...

Price trends on a short and medium-term basis for most risk assets have decidedly turned negative in the last four weeks. One method I utilize for trend-following, the IBD Power Trend system, triggered several sell signals for individual country ETFs. The tidal wave of negative alerts pushed a composite below a critical threshold, prompting a risk-off warning for global markets. After similar signals, the MSCI ACWI World ex USA Index struggled over the next three months.

PRODUCTS
SentimenTrader
Trading Tools
Indicators & Data API
‍
Strategies & Scanner
‍
Research Reports
FREE
RESOUrCES
Simple Backtest
Calculator
Simple Seasonality
Calculator
The Kelly Criterion
Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
‍
Public Research Reports
‍
Education
Sentiment Indicators
‍
Technical Indicators
‍
Pricing
Bundle pricing
‍
FAQ
‍
Announcements
‍
COMPANY
‍
About
‍
In the News
‍
Testimonials
‍
Client Success Stories
CONTACT
‍
General Inquiries
‍
Media Inquiries
‍
Financial Professionals Inquiries
‍
© 2026 Sundial Capital Research Inc. All rights reserved.
Setsail Marketing
TermsPrivacyAffiliate Program
Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

Testimonial Disclosure: Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.