A strong 2nd quarter for SPX (and what it typically means for stocks)

Key points:

• The 2^nd quarter of 2026 saw the S&P 500 rise 14.9% in price
• The index just missed registering a gain in all three months of the 2nd quarter
• Over the past 70+ years, a strong 2nd quarter performance has signaled a favorable environment for stocks over the next nine months

What defines a "strong" 2^nd quarter

To be clear, we define the 2^nd quarter as the months of April, May, and June combined. We define a "strong" 2^nd quarter as one or both of the following:

• The S&P 500 shows a price gain during each of the three individual months; And/or
• The S&P 500 shows a price gain of 10% or more from the end of March through the end of June

The S&P 500 showed large gains in April and May but suffered a decline during June. However, the good news is that the index showed a net price gain of 14.9% over the course of the entire 2^nd quarter. So, while the first potential criterion (3 straight "up" months) failed to trigger, the second (a quarterly gain of +10% or more) did.

What might this mean moving forward? Let's take a closer look at the history.

What a "strong" 2^nd quarter typically means for stocks

Here are the rules we will apply:

• If th