A single-country ETF that may have gotten ahead of itself

The VanEck Vietnam ETF (VNM) has soared over 70% since bottoming in April. Could this be a sea change relative to U.S. stocks? It is possible. Is it time to jump aboard this soaring rocket? Sentiment and seasonality argue caution at this point. The chart and table below highlight those rare occasions when the 100-day average of our VNM Optix indicator was above 62. 

The sample size involves only three previous periods, so assuming that VNM will see weakness following the current period of high Optix readings is risky. But it does stand as a note of caution. VNM has exhibited this type of explosiveness before. And it has ended badly.

For the record, VNM has completely ignored its annual seasonal calendar so far in 2025. With price action soaring and completely diverging from its annual seasonal trend, I would typically not pay much attention to it. However, given the Optix concern above, it is worth noting that the period from TDY #156 to #163 (from August 18th close through August 27th) has tended to show weakness.

The bottom line: If you are considering jumping into international stocks, sentiment and seasonality suggest that patience may be in order regarding ticker VNM.