A recovery in the Hang Seng
Key points
- The Hang Seng Index is experiencing a massive short-term breadth thrust, with over 95% of its constituents surging above their 10-day moving averages, marking the highest participation level in over a year.
- Medium-term indicators are confirming this momentum, as the percentage of Hang Seng stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages just eclipsed 55%-a dramatic recovery from sub-10% levels seen just last month.
- Historically, when this 50-day participation threshold triggers while the index is down 18% or more from its one-year high, it boasts an 80%+ win rate over the medium-to-long term, with failures primarily linked to extreme exogenous shocks (e.g., the Global Financial Crisis).
A significant number of Hang Seng Index members are now in short-term uptrends
We've seen this movie before. Chinese stocks spike, everyone gets excited, they tank, everyone forgets about them, then they spike again.
While "Chinese stocks" mean different things to different people, the Hang Seng index is one of the main gauges. The Hang Seng Index started the breadth thrust party this week when the percentage of Index members trading above their 10-day average exceeded 95%. This explosion in short-term uptrends marks the highest level of index constituent participation in over a year.</

